Wordless Wednesdays: Sherlock Holmes Trailer!

I dunno. Kinda on the fence about this one. Looks a little too much like League of Extraordinary Gentlemen to me (read: Excellent source material, poorly translated action flick)

The New Doctor Who?…

I know Wednesdays are the days I usually post videos, but I came across this and wanted to pass it along. I don’t know if the followers of the Whoniverse on this side of the pond already know this, but I just saw it. I’m sure it’s a red herring, but now I’m excited for the Christmas Special…

Wordless Wednesdays: The Dark Knight/Toy Story Mash Up…

Sent to me by my friend Lindsay, this is one of the better mash up movie trailers I’ve seen. Rex and Potato Head once again steal the show in my opinion…

E-Mail Forwards: Hard To Believe…Except When You Think About It

I was sent this map in an e-mail forward titled “Hard To Believe”. The map shows the results, by county, of the 2008 Presidential Election. In glancing at the map, you may say to yourself, “Wow, it seems like McCain won most of the country!”

…That is, until you think about it for, like, two seconds. Compare the map that was forwarded to me with the map below it–a map showing population density in the United States. Then it’s pretty easy to see what actually happened: McCain won counties with about three people while Obama won the large population centers of the country. Therefore, Obama received the most votes and won the election.

Which means it isn’t that hard to believe…when you think about it.

Some Funny And Kind Of Disturbing Videos For You: Say No To Prop 8, No To Sarah Palin

Finally, after 732 years of campaigning, today’s the day.  If you live in California, take a stand against bigotry and say no to Prop 8…

 

and nation-wide, say no to Sarah Palin and the man who chose her as his running mate, John McCain.

The New Bradley Effect

There has been a malot of talk this election about the so-called “Bradley Effect”.  The Bradley effect refers to the 1982 California gubernatorial race in which Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, lost to his opponent on election day, despite leading in both pre-election day polling and exit polling as well by as much as 10 points.  In 1983, a researcher named Charles Henry published a study that came to the conclusion that Bradley’s race was ultimately the deciding factor for many voters and the cause of the discrepancy between the exit polling and the actual results.

Basically what he’s saying is that when people were polled, no one admitted to having a problem voting for black candidate, but when it actually came time for the election, their racism was the deciding factor and they voted for the white guy.

Because of this, many pundits have been raising the question as to whether this could happen to Obama as well–some going so far as to say Obama needs to be up by at least 10 points before he can actually feel safe about his lead.

But I honestly don’t believe that to be true.  Call me naive, but I just don’t think racism is as big of a factor as it was 26 years ago.  That’s not to say there aren’t voters out there who are only voting for McCain because he’s the white guy in the election.  But what I think has happened is that people who are using race as their deciding factor in voting for President aren’t running up the polling numbers as Obama supporters or even as undecideds.  If the fact that Obama is black is a reason a voter wouldn’t vote for him, that voter has long ago rationalized their support for McCain anyway.  Instead of seeing people saying they’re voting for Obama when polled, but on election day actually voting for McCain, what actually is happening is that voters who don’t want to vote for an African-American candidate have instead rationalized and found many other reasons to vote for McCain.  So people who use race as a factor in voting are already being counted in the polls as McCain supporters. 

But that isn’t to say there won’t be a “Bradley Effect” of sorts come election day.

While I don’t believe that Obama really has to worry about his race causing a discrepancy between the current polling numbers and actual election day results, what he does have to worry about is his party’s stance on abortion.

While it’s an issue that hasn’t really been talked about much in this campaign, abortion will a main reason why a voter chooses either Obama or McCain tomorrow.  Despite all the talk about the economy, the wars, or tax plans, Roe v. Wade still holds heavy sway over a voter’s decision while in the booth.  I’ve personally found this to be the case just in leaving comments on various blogs here on wordpress.com.  I’ll often stop by a McCain supporter’s blog and ask why they’re voting Republican after eight years of failed policies.  In the ensuing discussion, they’ll cite Obama’s “socialist” policies, how McCain is a war hero, Obama’s perceived lack of experience, and at the end they’ll usually throw in a line like this:

“Plus, he’s for abortion.”

Which, while it seems like a throw away line, is probably the real reason why that blogger is voting against Obama.  But again, people like that aren’t skewing the polling data for Obama, just to rip the rug out from underneath him by tomorrow night.  They’re already voting and polling for McCain.  But what we’ll have to watch for are the independent voters and the “undecideds”.  There could be a large enough percentage of those two groups–groups who after 20+ months of campaigning still see both candidates as being equal–who will use their personal stance on abortion to decide who to vote for when it’s time to cast their ballot.  And come Wednesday morning, if it’s President-Elect McCain and *shudder* Vice-President-Elect Palin, the pundits, instead of the “Bradley Effect”, could be talking about the “Roe Effect”.

Wordless Wednesdays: Mayberry 2008…

You’ll see Part II of my post “The Religion of Politics” tomorrow (hopefully).  But we pause now for Wordless Wednesday with a return to Mayberry…